{"id":92591,"date":"2023-10-15T10:23:00","date_gmt":"2023-10-15T07:23:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/politic.karpat.in.ua\/?p=92591"},"modified":"2023-10-15T10:02:46","modified_gmt":"2023-10-15T07:02:46","slug":"megkezdodott-a-lengyel-valasztas-oriasi-a-tet-egesz-europa-szamara","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/politic.karpat.in.ua\/?p=92591&lang=hu","title":{"rendered":"Megkezd\u0151d\u00f6tt a lengyel v\u00e1laszt\u00e1s: \u00f3ri\u00e1si a t\u00e9t, eg\u00e9sz Eur\u00f3pa sz\u00e1m\u00e1ra"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Sorsd\u00f6nt\u0151 v\u00e1laszt\u00e1s tartanak ma Lengyelorsz\u00e1gban. A nemzeti szuverenista Jog \u00e9s Igazs\u00e1goss\u00e1g (PiS) ellenfele Donald Tusk Br\u00fcsszel-k\u00f6zeli, globalista baloldali koal\u00edci\u00f3ja. A v\u00e1laszt\u00e1si eredm\u00e9ny nagyon szoros lesz. A PiS vezet, de szerencs\u00e9tlen esetben nem kiz\u00e1rt egy baloldali koal\u00edci\u00f3 gy\u0151zelme sem, \u00e9s az is lehet, hogy egyik oldal sem tud korm\u00e1nyt alak\u00edtani.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">31 ezer szavaz\u00f3k\u00f6rben kezd\u0151d\u00f6tt meg vas\u00e1rnap reggel 7-kor a voksol\u00e1s, a szavazatokat este kilencig lehet leadni. A lengyel v\u00e1laszt\u00e1si rendszer tiszt\u00e1n list\u00e1s, de a mand\u00e1tumokat v\u00e1laszt\u00e1si k\u00f6rzetenk\u00e9nt osztj\u00e1k ki (ebb\u0151l 41 van), \u00edgy nem teljesen ar\u00e1nyos.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" src=\"https:\/\/politic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/20231013morawiecki-mateusz.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-92598\" srcset=\"https:\/\/politic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/20231013morawiecki-mateusz.jpg 800w, https:\/\/politic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/20231013morawiecki-mateusz-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/politic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/20231013morawiecki-mateusz-768x512.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A legutols\u00f3 k\u00f6zv\u00e9lem\u00e9nykutat\u00e1sok (okt\u00f3ber 10 \u00e9s 13 k\u00f6z\u00f6tt) mindegyike azt mutatja, hogy a korm\u00e1nyz\u00f3 szuverenista Jog \u00e9s Igazs\u00e1goss\u00e1g v\u00e9gez az \u00e9len. A k\u00fcl\u00f6nbs\u00e9g azonban nagyon elt\u00e9r\u0151, a legutols\u00f3 hat kutat\u00e1s (hat k\u00fcl\u00f6nb\u00f6z\u0151 int\u00e9zett\u0151l) 2,6 \u00e9s 9,6 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kpont k\u00f6z\u00e9 mutatja az el\u0151ny\u00fcket a Donald Tusk vezette Polg\u00e1ri Koal\u00edci\u00f3 (KO) nev\u0171 baloldali sz\u00f6vets\u00e9ggel szemben. Ez a PiS eset\u00e9ben 31-37,4 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kot, a KO eset\u00e9ben 26-31,4 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kot jelent (nincs olyan kutat\u00e1s, ami szerint a KO vezetne, nem ott \u00e1llnak a legmagasabban, ahol a PiS a legalacsonyabban).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Az utols\u00f3 napok tendenci\u00e1ja a korm\u00e1nyp\u00e1rtnak l\u00e1tszik kedvezni, mind a hat int\u00e9zetn\u00e9l n\u0151tt az el\u0151ny\u00fck az el\u0151z\u0151 kutat\u00e1shoz k\u00e9pest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"pl\" dir=\"ltr\">AKTUALIZACJA\u2757\ufe0f \u015arednia notowa\u0144 w interwale od 30 wrze\u015bnia do 7 pa\u017adziernika (7 sonda\u017cy) oraz od 8 do 12 pa\u017adziernika (8 sonda\u017cy), z wag\u0105 uwzgl\u0119dniaj\u0105c\u0105 prawdopodobny rozk\u0142ad g\u0142os\u00f3w w obwodach zagranicznych. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/PWPKRAGvcd\">pic.twitter.com\/PWPKRAGvcd<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Marcin Palade (@MarcinPalade) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/MarcinPalade\/status\/1712885936030171199?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 13, 2023<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ezek a sz\u00e1mok azonban csak a belf\u00f6ldi szavazatokat mutatj\u00e1k. Marcin Palade lengyel politikai elemz\u0151 szerint a v\u00e1rhat\u00f3 k\u00fclf\u00f6ldi szavazatokkal s\u00falyozva a k\u00f6vetkez\u0151 eredm\u00e9ny val\u00f3sz\u00edn\u0171:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>PiS&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;35,6-36,0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>KO&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;30,2-34,0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Harmadik \u00dat&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 10,7-10,8<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Baloldal&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;10,1-10,8<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Konf\u00f6der\u00e1ci\u00f3&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;9,3-&nbsp; 9,6<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Val\u00f3sz\u00edn\u0171 hogy egyed\u00fcl egyik nagy p\u00e1rt sem tud korm\u00e1nyt alak\u00edtani, ez\u00e9rt sorsd\u00f6nt\u0151, hogy m\u00e9g kik jutna be a parlamentbe. A harmadik helyen a Harmadik \u00dat nev\u0171 sz\u00f6vets\u00e9g \u00e1ll (10,3-13,0 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9k), \u0151ket k\u00f6veti a Baloldal (9,7-11,6) \u00e9s a Konf\u00f6der\u00e1ci\u00f3 (8-8,7 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9k).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"pl\" dir=\"ltr\">Podzia\u0142 mandat\u00f3w sejmowych na podstawie sonda\u017cu Estymatora dla <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/DoRzeczy?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@dorzeczy<\/a>:<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/pisorgpl?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@pisorgpl<\/a> 202<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/KObywatelska?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@KObywatelska<\/a> 153<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/TrzeciaDroga?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#TrzeciaDroga<\/a> 37<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/KONFEDERACJA_?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@KONFEDERACJA_<\/a> 35<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/__Lewica?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@__Lewica<\/a> 32<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/NiemcywPolsce?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@NiemcywPolsce<\/a> 1<br><br>KO+TD+Lewica 222<\/p>&mdash; Marcin Palade (@MarcinPalade) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/MarcinPalade\/status\/1712860167509799295?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 13, 2023<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Elemz\u0151k szerint amennyiben a PiS nem szerzi meg a t\u00f6bbs\u00e9get, akkor a jobboldali Konf\u00f6der\u00e1ci\u00f3val alak\u00edthat koal\u00edci\u00f3t. Marcin Palade szerint a mand\u00e1tumsz\u00e1mok a legval\u00f3sz\u00edn\u0171bben \u00edgy alakulnak:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>PiS&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;202<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>KO&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;153<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Harmadik \u00dat&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 37<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Konf\u00f6der\u00e1ci\u00f3&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;35<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Baloldal&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;32<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>N\u00e9met kisebbs\u00e9g&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 1<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ebben az esetben a PiS a Konf\u00f6der\u00e1ci\u00f3val tudna koal\u00edci\u00f3t alkotni, 237 k\u00e9pvisel\u0151vel a 460 tag\u00fa Szejmben. A KO \u00e9s potenci\u00e1lis sz\u00f6vets\u00e9gesei (Harmadik \u00dat \u00e9s Baloldal) 222 helyet szerezn\u00e9nek.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ugyanakkor bonyol\u00edtja a helyzetet, hogy sem az nem egy\u00e9rtelm\u0171, hogy a Konf\u00f6der\u00e1ci\u00f3 bel\u00e9pne egy jobboldali koal\u00edci\u00f3ba, sem az, hogy a Harmadik \u00dat egy baloldaliba \u2013 \u00edrja a Magyar Nemzet.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" src=\"https:\/\/politic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/donald-tusk.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-92597\" srcset=\"https:\/\/politic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/donald-tusk.jpg 800w, https:\/\/politic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/donald-tusk-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/politic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/donald-tusk-768x512.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Pawel Lisiecki, a PiS f\u0151v\u00e1rosi list\u00e1j\u00e1nak harmadik helyezettje azt mondta a lapnak, hogy a kamp\u00e1ny k\u00fclf\u00f6ldi beavatkoz\u00e1st\u00f3l sem volt mentes. Augusztusban Manfred Weber, az Eur\u00f3pai N\u00e9pp\u00e1rt vezet\u0151je p\u00e9ld\u00e1ul arr\u00f3l besz\u00e9lt, hogy a lengyel korm\u00e1nyp\u00e1rt jog\u00e1llamellenes \u00e9s le kell gy\u0151zni. Mateusz Morawiecki lengyel minisztereln\u00f6k emiatt nyilv\u00e1nos vit\u00e1ra h\u00edvta a n\u00e9met politikust, erre azonban nem ker\u00fclt sor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Lisiecki elmondta, N\u00e9metorsz\u00e1g m\u00e1r \u00e9vek \u00f3ta pr\u00f3b\u00e1l beavatkozni a lengyel politik\u00e1ba, al\u00e1\u00e1sva ezzel a PiS legitim\u00e1ci\u00f3j\u00e1t, azonban eddig nem j\u00e1rtak sikerrel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-right wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/hirado.hu\/kulfold\/cikk\/2023\/10\/15\/lengyelorszag-valaszt-1989-ota-ez-a-legfontosabb-voksolas\">(hirado.hu)<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Sorsd\u00f6nt\u0151 v\u00e1laszt\u00e1s tartanak ma Lengyelorsz\u00e1gban. A nemzeti szuverenista Jog \u00e9s Igazs\u00e1goss\u00e1g (PiS) ellenfele Donald Tusk Br\u00fcsszel-k\u00f6zeli, globalista baloldali koal\u00edci\u00f3ja. A v\u00e1laszt\u00e1si eredm\u00e9ny nagyon szoros lesz. A PiS vezet, de szerencs\u00e9tlen esetben nem kiz\u00e1rt egy baloldali koal\u00edci\u00f3 gy\u0151zelme sem, \u00e9s az is lehet, hogy egyik oldal sem tud korm\u00e1nyt alak\u00edtani.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":92600,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[41,23,39],"tags":[1063,5665],"class_list":["post-92591","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cikkek","category-fotok","category-vilag","tag-lengyelorszag","tag-valasztasok"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/politic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/92591","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/politic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/politic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/politic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/politic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=92591"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/politic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/92591\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":92601,"href":"https:\/\/politic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/92591\/revisions\/92601"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/politic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/92600"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/politic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=92591"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/politic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=92591"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/politic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=92591"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}