{"id":67617,"date":"2023-01-17T21:12:00","date_gmt":"2023-01-17T19:12:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/politic.karpat.in.ua\/?p=67617"},"modified":"2023-01-17T18:47:09","modified_gmt":"2023-01-17T16:47:09","slug":"isw-oroszorszag-valtoztat-a-haboru-megkozelitesenek-alapveto-szempontjain","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/politic.karpat.in.ua\/?p=67617&lang=hu","title":{"rendered":"ISW: Oroszorsz\u00e1g v\u00e1ltoztat a h\u00e1bor\u00fa megk\u00f6zel\u00edt\u00e9s\u00e9nek alapvet\u0151 szempontjain"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Moszkva az elk\u00f6vetkezend\u0151 hat h\u00f3napban megpr\u00f3b\u00e1lja megragadni a strat\u00e9giai kezdem\u00e9nyez\u00e9st Ukrajn\u00e1ban, \u00e9s ehhez megv\u00e1ltoztatja a h\u00e1bor\u00fa megk\u00f6zel\u00edt\u00e9s\u00e9nek alapvet\u0151 szempontjait \u2013 sz\u00e1molt be az amerikai H\u00e1bor\u00fas Tanulm\u00e1nyok Int\u00e9zete (Institute for the Study of War \u2013 ISW).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"820\" height=\"444\" src=\"https:\/\/politic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/isw.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-67618\" srcset=\"https:\/\/politic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/isw.jpg 820w, https:\/\/politic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/isw-300x162.jpg 300w, https:\/\/politic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/isw-768x416.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Az elemz\u0151k megjegyzik, hogy az Ukrajna elleni, teljes k\u00f6r\u0171 h\u00e1bor\u00fa tizenegy h\u00f3napja alatt Oroszorsz\u00e1g nem \u00e9rte el f\u0151 m\u0171veleti c\u00e9ljainak t\u00f6bbs\u00e9g\u00e9t. \u00cdgy az orosz csapatoknak nem siker\u00fclt elfoglalniuk Kijevet, valamint Donyeck \u00e9s Luhanszk megy\u00e9ket, megtartani a megh\u00f3d\u00edtott Harkiv r\u00e9gi\u00f3t \u00e9s Herszon v\u00e1ros\u00e1t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A kritikus infrastrukt\u00fara elleni t\u00e1mad\u00e1sok sem okoztak operat\u00edv k\u00f6vetkezm\u00e9nyeket, nem demoraliz\u00e1lt\u00e1k az ukr\u00e1n t\u00e1rsadalmat.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00c1m a veres\u00e9g ellen\u00e9re Vlagyimir Putyin eln\u00f6k \u00e9s a Kreml magas rang\u00fa tiszts\u00e9gvisel\u0151i nem adj\u00e1k fel maximalista c\u00e9ljaikat \u2013 Ukrajna teljes elfoglal\u00e1s\u00e1t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Az ISW \u00fagy v\u00e9li, hogy Oroszorsz\u00e1g a k\u00f6vetkez\u0151 hat h\u00f3napban val\u00f3sz\u00edn\u0171leg hat\u00e1rozott strat\u00e9giai l\u00e9p\u00e9sekre k\u00e9sz\u00fcl.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Elemz\u0151k v\u00e9lem\u00e9nye szerint Oroszorsz\u00e1g nagyszab\u00e1s\u00fa harci cselekm\u00e9nyekre val\u00f3 felk\u00e9sz\u00fcl\u00e9s\u00e9t jelzi:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Az orosz hadsereg b\u0151v\u00edt\u00e9se \u00faj hadoszt\u00e1lyok megalak\u00edt\u00e1s\u00e1val, a 2010-ig m\u0171k\u00f6d\u0151 katonai k\u00f6rzetek vissza\u00e1ll\u00edt\u00e1sa Oroszorsz\u00e1g nyugati r\u00e9sz\u00e9n, valamint a sorkatonai \u00e9letkor esetleges emel\u00e9se.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A mozg\u00f3s\u00edtott katon\u00e1k j\u00f6v\u0151beli alkalmaz\u00e1sa. Ez elt\u00e9r a Kreml eredeti megk\u00f6zel\u00edt\u00e9s\u00e9t\u0151l, amely szerint 2022 \u0151sz\u00e9n k\u00e9pzetlen \u00fajoncokat k\u00fcldtek ki a frontra.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>K\u00eds\u00e9rlet saj\u00e1t v\u00e9delmi \u00e9s ipari b\u00e1zisuk helyre\u00e1ll\u00edt\u00e1s\u00e1ra.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A katonai m\u0171veletek ir\u00e1ny\u00edt\u00e1s\u00e1nak \u00fajrak\u00f6zpontos\u00edt\u00e1sa \u00e9s Valerij Heraszimov t\u00e1bornok kinevez\u00e9se az Ukrajn\u00e1ban harcol\u00f3 egyes\u00fclt orosz er\u0151k parancsnok\u00e1v\u00e1.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Az ukrajnai orosz inv\u00e1zi\u00f3 indokolts\u00e1g\u00e1nak meger\u0151s\u00edt\u00e9se az inform\u00e1ci\u00f3s t\u00e9rben. 2022 v\u00e9g\u00e9n a Kreml tisztvisel\u0151i \u00fajra n\u00e9pszer\u0171s\u00edtett\u00e9k azt a hamis narrat\u00edv\u00e1t, miszerint a f\u00fcggetlen Ukrajna l\u00e9te vesz\u00e9lyezteti az orosz szuverenit\u00e1st \u00e9s kult\u00far\u00e1t.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Az ISW elemz\u0151i hangs\u00falyozz\u00e1k, hogy a Kreml azon t\u00f6rekv\u00e9se, hogy val\u00f3sz\u00edn\u0171s\u00edthet\u0151en hat\u00e1rozott l\u00e9p\u00e9sekre k\u00e9sz\u00fcl, nem z\u00e1rja ki, hogy Oroszorsz\u00e1g megteremti a felt\u00e9teleit egy elh\u00faz\u00f3d\u00f3 h\u00e1bor\u00fanak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201eAz ISW nem felt\u00e9telezi Oroszorsz\u00e1g \u201eutols\u00f3 k\u00eds\u00e9rlet\u00e9t\u201d az ukrajnai h\u00e1bor\u00fa megnyer\u00e9s\u00e9re.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Az elemz\u0151k megjegyezt\u00e9k, hogy Moszkva hivatalos katonai c\u00e9lja tov\u00e1bbra is Donyeck \u00e9s Luhanszk r\u00e9gi\u00f3k teljes elfoglal\u00e1sa, b\u00e1r ez feltehet\u0151en nagyon neh\u00e9z lesz. Az orosz megsz\u00e1ll\u00f3 er\u0151k megpr\u00f3b\u00e1lhatnak egy \u00fajabb nagy offenz\u00edv\u00e1t ind\u00edtani Luhanszk t\u00e9rs\u00e9g\u00e9ben.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ugyanakkor az ISW elemz\u0151i szerint a megsz\u00e1ll\u00f3k val\u00f3sz\u00edn\u0171leg nem ind\u00edtanak t\u00e1mad\u00e1st Ukrajna d\u00e9li r\u00e9sz\u00e9n, Herszon vagy Zaporizzsja r\u00e9gi\u00f3kban.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-right wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/hromadske.ua\/posts\/kreml-zminyuye-fundamentalni-aspekti-pidhodu-do-vijni-isw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Forr\u00e1s<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&lt;!&#8211;translatorid:ild5234 &#8211;&gt;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Moszkva az elk\u00f6vetkezend\u0151 hat h\u00f3napban megpr\u00f3b\u00e1lja megragadni a strat\u00e9giai kezdem\u00e9nyez\u00e9st Ukrajn\u00e1ban, \u00e9s ehhez megv\u00e1ltoztatja a h\u00e1bor\u00fa megk\u00f6zel\u00edt\u00e9s\u00e9nek alapvet\u0151 szempontjait<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":67618,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[41,53452,49,47,39],"tags":[186794,92079],"class_list":["post-67617","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cikkek","category-war-hu","category-hirek","category-velemenyek","category-vilag","tag-institute-for-the-study-of-war-isw","tag-orosz-ukran-haboru"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/politic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67617","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/politic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/politic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/politic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/politic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=67617"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/politic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67617\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":67621,"href":"https:\/\/politic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67617\/revisions\/67621"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/politic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/67618"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/politic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=67617"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/politic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=67617"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/politic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=67617"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}